Crude Oil tries to salvage situation with OPEC only trimming demand outlook marginally

• Crude Oil sinks lower on the back of the monthly OPEC report. 
• The monthly OPEC report remains bullish on its outlook for demand and economic activity which is expected to drive demand. 
• The US Dollar Index trades above 101.50, easing a touch after Monday’s rally.

Crude oil is on the verge of falling below $67.00 following the release of the latest OPEC report for September. Leading commodity specialists and analysts may have raised their heads when they read that OPEC maintains its stable oil demand forecast. Only its demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been changed by around 0.08 million barrels per day each.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which analyses the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is slightly down on Tuesday, ahead of a fairly light US schedule. The major event will take place after US markets close, with the first and possibly only debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in their race for the White House.

Oil news and market movements: OPEC reports defy markets.

• Plunging. Oil prices have driven Russia’s crude revenues to their lowest level since February. The development portends problems for Moscow, which is already dealing with a shaky situation in Ukraine.
  According to Bloomberg, the OPEC monthly Market Report predicts that global oil demand would stay stable despite OPEC+’s decision to extend output restrictions for another two months.
• According to Bloomberg, Tropical Storm Francine is intensifying as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico. Oil drillers in the area are evacuating their staff and halting offshore petroleum production.
• Mol Group, a Hungarian energy corporation, will take over the Russian oil flow at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to ensure its safe passage into Hungary via Ukrainian land. The corporation was forced to do so when Ukraine sanctioned the Russian company Lukoil, which was initially in charge of maintaining and protecting the transition on Ukrainian land, according to Reuters.
  According to Bloomberg, Liao Na, the chief consultant of energy and chemicals at My Steel Oil Chem, believes China’s crude imports may decrease by 1.2% annually.
• The American Petroleum Institute (API) will announce weekly figures on US crude stockpile fluctuations. There was a decrease of almost 7.8 million barrels the week before. There is no forecast for this week’s number, which is anticipated at 20:30 GMT.

Oil Technical Analysis: Reality vs Euphoria

Crude oil might face a final blow, with prices falling further to $65.00 or possibly $60.00, depending on how markets perceive the impending monthly OPEC report. OPEC is the sole market participant with the potential to significantly alter prices.

The unofficial central bank of oil could easily boost prices back up to $70.00 if it agrees to additional production cutbacks, but the uncoordinated organization appears incapable of acting forcefully to sustain oil prices.

On the plus side, $75.27 will be the first level to return to. Next, the $77.43 level corresponds to both a descending trend line and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If bulls break above it, the 100-day SMA at $77.71 may prompt a rejection.

On Friday, the $67.11 critical level broke temporarily. For the time being, the current price range of $67.11 to $68.00 is to be watched. The next level down the line is $64.38, the low from March and May 2023.